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Taylor, Zachary, Charlotte Phillips and Srdjan Bogosavljevic. 2005 ‘Ilegal Civilian Possession.’ Living with the Legacy: SALW Survey of the Republic of Serbia; Section 4.3 (Table 8), pp. 12, 16, 17. London: United Nations Development Programme (UNDP) / Saferworld. 1 March

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Illegal Civilian Possession

It is not possible to accurately calculate the number of illegal firearms in Serbia due to the sensitivity of the issue and the lack of previous credible estimates. However, a wide range of primary and secondary factors have been taken into consideration, which help construct a realistic picture of illegal possession in Serbia…

The following table illustrates the range of estimates provided to this survey:

Estimates of number of illegal firearm:

Source: MUP I
Estimate: 60,000

Source: MUP II
Estimate: 220,000

Source: Key Informant (KI)
Estimate: 60,000

Source: Household Survey
Estimate: 1,000,000

Source: KI 2
Estimate: 1,100,000

Source: KI 3
Estimate: 1,200,000

Source: KI 1
Estimate:1,400,000

Source: KI 4
Estimate: 1,500,000

Source: KI 5
Estimate: 1,500,000

Source: SMMRI
Estimate: 1,400,000

Source: Mean
Estimate: 944,000

The table demonstrates that there appears to be a high incidence of estimates in the band between 1 million and 1.5 million. If equal weighting is given to each key informant estimate, then a mean figure would represent 944,000 unregistered firearms. This figure appears realistic given Serbia's recent experience with conflict, attitudes towards firearms ownership, large-scale refugee movements, the availability of firearms and weak (though improving) trust in state institutions to guarantee safety and security. However the MUP felt strongly that higher estimates of between 1 and 1.5 million illicit SALW were inflated.

[MUP = Ministry of the Interior; SALW = Small arms and light weapons]

[Sources: Saferworld interviews with Dr Marko Nicovic, Vice President, International Bodyguard and Security Services Association, Dr. James Lyon, Director, Serbia Project, International Crisis Group; Alexander Radic, Journalist, VIP News; Milorad Timotic, Secretary General, Centre for Civil Military Relations; Ivan Filipovic, Red Beret Special Forces, Southern Serbia and Kosovo (retd); Alexander Piperski, Regional Coordinator SALW, European Movement in Serbia.]

ID: Q3749

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