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Small Arms Survey. 2021 ‘Numbers and Types of Firearms in Civilian Possession.’ Nigeria: National Small Arms and Light Weapons Survey, pp. 46-47. Geneva: Small Arms Survey, the Graduate Institute of International and Development Studies, Geneva. 23 August

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On average, the vast majority of respondents in households with arms reported having only a single firearm (89 per cent). A total of 6 per cent said they had two firearms and 5 per cent reported having three or more firearms, thus bringing the average number of firearms in armed households in Nigeria to 1.24.

Rural arms-possessing households reported having a higher number of firearms (1.30 on average) compared to their urban counterparts (1.14). Also, better educated (and thus presumably more affluent) armed households tended to have more firearms (1.32) compared to those with no formal education (1.15). Finally, those armed households where someone had fallen victim to violence in the past also had more firearms than the average (1.34).

Based on the reported number of firearms per household, there are an estimated 17 firearms per 100 persons in Nigeria.

This figure is calculated based on the presence of firearms in approximately 14 per cent of Nigerian households ('firearm penetration rate') and slightly more than one firearm per armed household. The firearm penetration rate ranges from only 6 per cent in South West to 42 per cent in South East (Table 7).

The extrapolation of this average to the entire country (using the 2006 population census data) yields an estimated civilian arsenal of at least 5.4 million firearms in Nigeria, without taking population growth since the last census into account. When the estimated 20 per cent growth in the number of households in the 2006–16 period is taken into account — the population increased by just over 30 per cent over the same period — the survey results indicate that approximately 6.4–6.5 million firearms may be in civilian hands in Nigeria. Although these findings should be read in conjunction with the methodological notes outlined in Box 1, they are in line with reputable expert estimates (see Karp, 2018, p. 4).

ID: Q15489

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